Drift

What changed between readings

Drift is the observatory's core claim: a model's answer to a fixed question, tracked across time and across releases. Because every result records the exact model id it came from, a version bump is distinguishable from same-version drift.

Moved since the prior run

15 question(s) changed over 7 days

A changed modal answer is not by itself a changed belief. Across the 6 consecutive five-draw readings to October 19, 78 changes have had a later reading able to test them: 39 held the following week and 39 moved again. Roughly half of what this page lists will not survive the next reading, and we cannot tell you in advance which half — so it is published with the interval attached rather than filtered behind a threshold we cannot justify. How we measured that.

Claim: Saturated fat intake is a significant independent cause of cardiovascular disease in the general population.

ChatGPT: contested → supported

Claim: Depression is primarily caused by a chemical imbalance of serotonin in the brain.

Claude: refuted → contested

Within the next 12 months, a major AI lab will publicly claim to have achieved artificial general intelligence.

ChatGPT: unlikely → somewhat likely

Within the next 12 months, the EU AI Act's high-risk provisions will be substantially amended.

Claude: very unlikely → unlikely

Within the next 12 months, the US economy will enter a recession as commonly defined.

Claude: unlikely → somewhat likely

Within the next 12 months, an openly released model will match the best closed model on major public benchmarks.

Gemini: unlikely → somewhat likely