12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-ai-regulation-01

Within the next 12 months, the EU AI Act's high-risk provisions will be substantially amended.

0.17

Divergence

0.70

Avg stability

Refusal rate

Models

Where each model stands

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

ChatGPT modal unlikely [somewhat likely, no position, somewhat likely, unlikely, unlikely] · stability 0.50

1 somewhat likely 0.75 The answer says: “adding or removing items from the high‑risk lists via delegated acts is plausible within a 12‑month horizon; wholesale changes to obligations ... are less likely” — i.e. limited (annex) amendments are plausible but major legislative overhauls are not.
2 no position 0.90 The answer explicitly declines to state whether an amendment will occur: “I can’t confirm that—my training data goes to June 2024 and I don’t have live browsing here—so I can’t say whether a specific amendment will happen inside the next 12 months.”
3 somewhat likely 0.70 The answer states: “Short answer - Possible but not guaranteed,” and explains delegated acts could update Annexes within months while full legislative amendment normally takes longer than a year.
4 unlikely 0.86 The answer begins: “Short answer: probably not — at least not via a wholesale change of the Regulation itself,” while noting only delegated/implementing acts and standards are likely to cause operational changes within 12 months.
5 unlikely 0.80 "Short answer: unlikely for the core high‑risk framework, but plausible for targeted updates." — the answer says major revision of the primary provisions is low probability within 12 months.

Claude modal unlikely [unlikely, very unlikely, unlikely, very unlikely, unlikely] · stability 0.60

1 unlikely 0.85 The assistant explicitly states 'substantial amendments are unlikely in the next 12 months' and concludes that 'the more likely scenario is refinement through guidance rather than substantial legislative amendment within 12 months,' citing slow EU legislative processes, the Act's recent passage, and ongoing implementation phases.
2 very unlikely 0.92 The answer states 'EU legislative amendments to major acts typically require 18-36+ months even when priority' and emphasizes the Act 'just went live' with 'usually a period of implementation before revisions.' It notes there is 'no active amendment process announced' and describes substantial amendment within 12 months as uncertain, while suggesting guidance and proposals are more likely than for
3 unlikely 0.85 The assistant explicitly states that 'substantial changes within 12 months are uncertain' and that 'Formal substantial amendments: probably 2+ years minimum,' directly contradicting the likelihood of substantial amendments to high-risk provisions within 12 months.
4 very unlikely 0.92 The answer explicitly states 'I'd be skeptical of this prediction' and explains that the EU AI Act recently entered force after years of negotiation, most provisions don't take effect until 2025-2026, EU legislation typically has longer implementation cycles before major revisions, and there is no current political momentum for reopening the hard-fought compromise. The assistant argues that clarif
5 unlikely 0.87 The assistant states that 'substantial amendments in 12 months seem unlikely' and emphasizes that 'EU regulatory processes are typically slow; major laws rarely get substantially revised shortly after entry into force.' The answer explains the Act just completed years of negotiation and stakeholders are focused on implementation rather than revision.

Gemini modal very unlikely [very unlikely, very unlikely, very unlikely, very unlikely, very unlikely] · stability 1.00

1 very unlikely 0.98 The answer states that the prediction is 'highly unlikely to come true' and notes that the likelihood of the primary legal text being substantially amended is 'close to 0%'.
2 very unlikely 0.99 The answer directly states that the statement is 'highly unlikely to come true' and notes that amending the primary text is 'virtually impossible within a 12-month window.'
3 very unlikely 1.00 The answer directly begins by stating: 'This statement is highly unlikely to be true.'
4 very unlikely 1.00 The answer directly states that the statement is 'highly unlikely to occur' and explains that substantially amending the text within 12 months is 'politically, procedurally, and legally improbable.'
5 very unlikely 1.00 The answer directly states: 'This prediction is highly unlikely to come true.'

Change over time

Moved since the prior run (canon-2026-W42). Claude: very unlikely → unlikely.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.