12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-ai-regulation-01

Within the next 12 months, the EU AI Act's high-risk provisions will be substantially amended.

0.17

Divergence

1.00

Avg stability

22%

Refusal rate

Models

Where each model stands

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

ChatGPT modal unlikely [no position, unlikely, no position] · stability 1.00

1 no position 0.90 The answer explicitly declines to take a position: "I can’t confirm that as a fact. My training cuts off in June 2024 and I can’t predict future legislation.", and offers analysis rather than a yes/no prediction.
2 unlikely 0.86 “Short answer: Probably not in the sense of a formal re‑writing of the Regulation... but yes in the sense that the Act’s practical content ... will be significantly shaped within the next 12 months.” The assistant says a formal amendment is ‘probably not.’
3 no position 0.90 The answer explicitly declines to confirm the prediction: “I can’t confirm that prediction. My training only goes up to June 2024 and I don’t have live web access…”, and says the outcome is “possible but not certain.”

Claude modal unlikely [unlikely, unlikely, unlikely] · stability 1.00

1 unlikely 0.82 The answer emphasizes it is 'too early for formal amendments given the implementation timeline' and identifies 'barriers to substantial amendment within 12 months' including that 'the EU legislative process is lengthy' and 'reopening it so soon would be politically difficult.' It suggests minor clarifications and guidance are more likely than substantial amendments.
2 unlikely 0.92 The assistant states that 'major amendments in 12 months are unlikely' and explains that 'The EU typically doesn't substantially revise major regulations within a year of implementation' and that 'The more likely timeframe for substantial amendments would be 2027-2028.' The answer clearly positions substantial amendment within 12 months as improbable while acknowledging only rare exceptions.
3 unlikely 0.82 The answer states 'substantial amendment seems unlikely in 12 months' and emphasizes that 'EU legislation rarely undergoes major revision so quickly after entry into force.' It distinguishes between likely minor adjustments/guidance versus substantial amendments, positioning the latter as improbable within the timeframe.

Gemini modal very unlikely [very unlikely, very unlikely, very unlikely] · stability 1.00

1 very unlikely 1.00 The answer directly states that the statement is 'very unlikely to come true, at least regarding the primary statutory text of the regulation.'
2 very unlikely 0.99 The answer directly states that the statement is 'highly unlikely to come true in a formal legislative sense' and that the text 'will not be substantially amended within the next 12 months.'
3 very unlikely 1.00 The answer directly states, 'It is highly unlikely that the EU AI Act’s high-risk provisions will be substantially amended within the next 12 months' and concludes with 'Verdict: False / Highly Unlikely.'

Change over time

No change from the prior run — every model's modal stance held.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.