12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-us-recession-01

Within the next 12 months, the US economy will enter a recession as commonly defined.

0.00

Divergence

0.88

Avg stability

40%

Refusal rate

Models

Where each model stands

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

ChatGPT modal somewhat likely [unlikely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely, no position] · stability 0.75

1 unlikely 0.75 The answer gives a baseline unconditional estimate of “roughly 25–40% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months,” which is below 50% and therefore leans toward 'no'.
2 somewhat likely 0.90 The answer states: “I’d assign roughly a 35–50% probability… I’m centering at ~40%,” expressing a moderate (but <50%) chance of recession within 12 months.
3 somewhat likely 0.90 The answer gives a 'moderate' probability estimate of about 25–40% that the U.S. will enter a recession within 12 months and calls it a 'moderate chance (not negligible, not dominant).'
4 somewhat likely 0.85 The answer gives a probabilistic central estimate: “a reasonable central estimate would be roughly a 30–40% probability of a U.S. recession within 12 months.”
5 no position 0.90 The answer explicitly declines to give a probability: “I can’t reliably evaluate that specific 12‑month prediction right now because my training data stops in June 2024 and I don’t have live economic data.”

Claude modal somewhat likely [somewhat likely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely] · stability 1.00

1 somewhat likely 0.72 The assistant presents balanced arguments but acknowledges that 'recession risk exists and deserves planning for' while noting economists assign '20-40% recession probability in the next year' and describes the inverted yield curve as 'genuinely concerning historically.' This indicates the assistant views recession as more probable than not when weighing the evidence, though explicitly uncertain.
2 somewhat likely 0.75 The answer cites economists' recession probability estimates of 40-70% for a 12-month window and presents balanced evidence for both recession and non-recession scenarios, with multiple specific risk factors (inverted yield curve, Fed rate hikes, tightening credit conditions) that suggest meaningful recession risk, ultimately reflecting genuine uncertainty that points toward the middle of the like
3 somewhat likely 0.72 The assistant characterizes a recession within 12 months as 'a plausible risk that serious economists debate' and acknowledges 'Factors that could support recession risk' including elevated interest rates and inverted yield curve, while also noting countervailing factors. The framing as genuinely uncertain with no 'high-confidence prediction either way' suggests a moderate probability assessment l
4 somewhat likely 0.72 The assistant states 'elevated recession probability within 12 months' and notes that recessions are 'more likely in any given window' given the timing since the last recession, while acknowledging 'high enough uncertainty that this remains genuinely uncertain.' This reflects a probability assessment leaning toward the claim being true but with substantial doubt.
5 somewhat likely 0.72 Professional forecasters generally assign non-trivial recession probability (often 20-40%) over the next 12 months, but this reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus expectation. Mixed economic indicators including elevated interest rates, yield curve inversions, and rising unemployment suggest meaningful recession risk within the specified timeframe.

Gemini modal no position [no position, no position, no position, no position, no position] · declined every sample — not scored

1 no position 0.95 The answer declines to take a position, noting that whether a recession will occur 'is a subject of active debate' and presenting balanced arguments for both sides with 'no consensus'.
2 no position 0.95 The answer explicitly declines to take a stance, stating that the topic is a 'subject of active debate' and concluding that a recession and continued expansion remain 'equally plausible.'
3 no position 0.95 The answer does not take a stance on whether a recession will occur, instead presenting balanced arguments for both outcomes and concluding that continued expansion is an equally plausible outcome.
4 no position 0.95 The response declines to take a position on whether a recession will occur, stating that it 'is a subject of active debate' and concluding that 'broad consensus does not point definitively toward one' while presenting both sides.
5 no position 0.95 The answer declines to take a definitive stance, stating that the topic is a 'subject of active debate' and concluding that it remains 'a matter of continued uncertainty.'

Change over time

Moved since the prior run (canon-2026-W42). Claude: unlikely → somewhat likely.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.