12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-reusable-rocket-01
Within the next 12 months, a fully reusable heavy-lift rocket will reach orbit and be recovered intact.
0.00
Divergence
0.78
Avg stability
0%
Refusal rate
3
Models
Where each model stands
CCG
very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely
ChatGPT modal unlikely [unlikely, unlikely, somewhat likely] · stability 0.67
- 1 unlikely 0.86 The answer states a 30% probability: “I assign about a 30% probability that, within the next 12 months, a fully reusable heavy‑lift rocket will reach orbit and be recovered intact.”
- 2 unlikely 0.85 The answer gives a probabilistic forecast of ≈25–35% ("roughly a 1‑in‑4 to 1‑in‑3 chance") that the event will occur within 12 months, indicating the assistant leans toward 'no'.
- 3 somewhat likely 0.75 The answer states: "I estimate about a 30% chance (roughly 1 in 3) that, within the next 12 months, a fully reusable heavy‑lift rocket will reach orbit and be recovered intact.", indicating a modest but non-negligible probability.
Claude modal unlikely [unlikely, unlikely, unlikely] · stability 1.00
- 1 unlikely 0.92 The assistant explicitly states 'I'd rate this as unlikely within 12 months, though not impossible' and explains that SpaceX Starship 'hasn't yet achieved a full orbital flight with booster and ship recovery' and that 'fully reusable' remains 'ahead of them', while characterizing the timeline as more likely '18-24 months' rather than within 12 months.
- 2 unlikely 0.92 The assistant explicitly rates this as 'unlikely but not impossible' with a '20-30% probability,' and emphasizes that Starship 'hasn't yet achieved a full orbital flight with booster recovery' and that 'development timelines consistently slip.' The 20-30% probability clearly maps to the 'unlikely' category.
- 3 unlikely 0.87 The assistant states 'This seems unlikely' and emphasizes that 'the timeline depends on how you define fully reusable,' explaining that Starship 'still needs to demonstrate consistent booster catches AND successful ship recovery in the same flight' and that 'Intact recovery is the hard part.' The answer suggests that while some progress is plausible, a fully reusable heavy-lift rocket reaching orb
Gemini modal unlikely [unlikely, somewhat likely, unlikely] · stability 0.67
- 1 unlikely 0.85 The assistant rates full success (both stages reaching orbit and recovered intact within 12 months) at 30–40%, describing it as 'an uphill battle' and suggesting it is more realistic in an 18-to-24-month window.
- 2 somewhat likely 0.95 The answer concludes with a verdict of 'Plausible, but on a Tight Margin' and explicitly estimates the probability as 'Moderate (roughly 50–60%)'.
- 3 unlikely 0.85 The answer estimates the probability of recovering the upper stage intact (the crucial gating item for full reusability) at only a 'Low-to-Moderate probability (20–35%)' within 12 months, concluding that achieving this remains a very high technical bar and later timelines are more realistic.
Change over time
Moved since the prior run (canon-2026-W36). Gemini: somewhat likely → unlikely. ChatGPT: somewhat likely → unlikely.
Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.