12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-reusable-rocket-01

Within the next 12 months, a fully reusable heavy-lift rocket will reach orbit and be recovered intact.

0.00

Divergence

0.77

Avg stability

Refusal rate

Models

Where each model stands

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

ChatGPT modal unlikely [unlikely, unlikely, unlikely, unlikely, somewhat likely] · stability 0.80

1 unlikely 0.90 The answer states: "I judge ~20% probability that, within the next 12 months, a fully reusable heavy‑lift rocket will both reach orbit and be recovered intact."
2 unlikely 0.90 The answer gives a numeric estimate of ~45% and says "I judge the chance below even odds but non‑negligible," indicating <50% probability.
3 unlikely 0.90 The answer gives a probability estimate of "roughly 20–30% chance" that a fully reusable heavy‑lift rocket will reach orbit and be recovered intact within 12 months.
4 unlikely 0.85 The answer explicitly assigns a 35% probability for the 12-month window, arguing SpaceX Starship is the sole plausible candidate but citing significant technical and regulatory obstacles that keep the chance below even odds.
5 somewhat likely 0.78 The answer gives a positive probability estimate: “roughly a 20–40% chance…,” and describes the outcome as “plausible but not high‑probability.”

Claude modal unlikely [unlikely, unlikely, unlikely, unlikely, unlikely] · stability 1.00

1 unlikely 0.92 The assistant explicitly assesses this as 'unlikely (~15-25% probability)' and emphasizes multiple technical hurdles including that 'SpaceX's Super Heavy booster hasn't achieved a full catch yet' and that 'Getting an orbital-class payload to orbit while recovering everything is harder than just reaching orbit' within the 12-month timeframe.
2 unlikely 0.85 My assessment: Probably under 50% likely. SpaceX is on track for major milestones, but 'fully reusable heavy-lift' implies a complete, proven cycle that's higher than their current demonstration phase.
3 unlikely 0.95 The assistant explicitly assesses the probability as 'roughly 15-25% probability' and states 'The most likely scenario within 12 months is either a successful orbital test *without* intact recovery, or continued progress toward that goal without yet achieving it.'
4 unlikely 0.95 The assistant explicitly assesses this as 'unlikely (maybe 15-25% probability)' and emphasizes multiple technical hurdles that need to be overcome within a tight 12-month timeline, including the need for a full orbital flight with both booster and ship recovered, which SpaceX has not yet achieved as of late 2024.
5 unlikely 0.92 The assistant assesses this as 'unlikely (maybe 15-25% probability)' and cites SpaceX's Starship hasn't yet achieved full orbital flight with booster recovery, the tight 12-month timeline given aerospace development cycles, and significant technical hurdles remaining in reentry and landing systems.

Gemini modal unlikely [no position, unlikely, unlikely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely] · stability 0.50

1 no position 0.95 The model declines to take a stance or provide a probability, concluding only that whether it occurs 'depends heavily on the pace of current flight-test programs' and balancing arguments for and against.
2 unlikely 0.90 The assistant estimates a '30–40% probability' of occurring within 12 months, concluding that full recovery is 'more likely 18 to 24 months away.'
3 unlikely 0.85 The assistant estimates the probability of upper stage intact recovery within 12 months at only '~30–45%' and concludes that achieving true full recovery of both stages is 'more realistically 18 to 24 months away.'
4 somewhat likely 0.85 The answer calls the prediction 'plausible, but technically high-risk to achieve within a strict 12-month window,' assigning a 40–50% likelihood to the critical remaining hurdle of recovering the upper stage intact.
5 somewhat likely 0.85 The answer provides an overall probability of 'Roughly 40–50%', rising above 70% if an intact ocean splashdown counts as recovered intact.

Change over time

Moved since the prior run (canon-2026-W42). Gemini: somewhat likely → unlikely. ChatGPT: somewhat likely → unlikely.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.