12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-agi-claim-01

Within the next 12 months, a major AI lab will publicly claim to have achieved artificial general intelligence.

0.17

Divergence

0.78

Avg stability

Refusal rate

Models

Where each model stands

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

ChatGPT modal somewhat likely [somewhat likely, unlikely, somewhat likely] · stability 0.67

1 somewhat likely 0.90 The answer states an explicit probability: “I’d assign roughly a 25% probability to the statement as written,” indicating a modest but non-negligible chance.
2 unlikely 0.92 The answer states: “I judge it unlikely but plausible,” giving ~10% for an explicit claim and ~25% for an ambiguous claim.
3 somewhat likely 0.90 The answer states: “I estimate about a 20% chance (plausible range ~10–35%) that a major AI lab will publicly claim it has achieved ‘AGI’ at least once within the next 12 months.”

Claude modal unlikely [unlikely, unlikely, unlikely] · stability 1.00

1 unlikely 0.92 The assistant explicitly states 'I'd guess this is unlikely' and provides a quantitative estimate of '<10% chance of a credible major lab claim, maybe 15-20% if you include looser marketing claims,' both well below the 50% threshold that would indicate 'somewhat-likely' or higher.
2 unlikely 0.85 The assistant estimates 15-25% probability, which falls in the unlikely range. They emphasize skepticism about such a public claim occurring, citing industry learning from hype cycles, caution from leading labs, credibility concerns, and lack of a clear capability threshold that would satisfy 'AGI' claims.
3 unlikely 0.85 I'd estimate this as unlikely but not negligible—maybe 10-15%. The labs doing frontier work mostly seem cautious about this specific claim, and making such a claim invites immediate, credible pushback from competitors and researchers.

Gemini modal unlikely [unlikely, unlikely, somewhat likely] · stability 0.67

1 unlikely 0.98 The answer directly states that 'an outright, unqualified public announcement that "AGI has been achieved" within the next 12 months is unlikely, though not impossible.'
2 unlikely 0.80 The answer concludes that '[r]ather than a simple, unqualified statement declaring "We have achieved AGI,"' labs have strong disincentives (regulatory, legal, and reputational) and are instead more likely to offer conditional or phased milestone announcements.
3 somewhat likely 0.85 The answer assesses the likelihood of an outright, unqualified declaration as 'low to moderate' (unlikely), but views a qualified, milestone-based claim of achieving an intermediate threshold of AGI as 'very high' and 'very plausible.'

Change over time

Moved since the prior run (canon-2026-W36). ChatGPT: unlikely → somewhat likely.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.