Contested facts · veracity-3pt · fact-serotonin-depression-01

Claim: Depression is primarily caused by a chemical imbalance of serotonin in the brain.

0.33

Divergence

0.87

Avg stability

Refusal rate

Models

Where each model stands

CCG

refutedcontestedsupported

ChatGPT modal refuted [refuted, refuted, refuted, refuted, refuted] · stability 1.00

1 refuted 0.92 The answer states: “No — that claim is an oversimplification and not supported by current evidence,” and explains that evidence for a simple serotonin-deficit cause is weak and inconsistent.
2 refuted 0.92 The answer states: 'That claim is an oversimplification and is not supported by current evidence' and 'Depression is not primarily or simply caused by a single “chemical imbalance” of serotonin.'
3 refuted 0.96 The answer states 'Not supported. The idea that depression is primarily caused by a simple “chemical imbalance” of serotonin is an oversimplification and not supported by current evidence,' citing a 2022 umbrella review and other evidence.
4 refuted 0.95 The answer explicitly states 'Short answer: False (or at best, an oversimplification)' and cites lack of consistent evidence for a serotonin deficiency causing depression and an umbrella review concluding the serotonin theory lacks convincing support.
5 refuted 0.92 "Short answer: No — that statement is an oversimplification...research...has shown that depression is not simply or primarily explained by a single deficit of brain serotonin," disputing the claim.

Claude modal contested [contested, refuted, refuted, contested, contested] · stability 0.60

1 contested 0.95 The answer states the claim is 'a popular but oversimplified view' that 'captures part of the picture but vastly oversimplifies.' It acknowledges evidence supporting serotonin involvement while identifying major limitations and the current scientific consensus that depression is multifactorial, not primarily caused by serotonin imbalance alone.
2 refuted 0.92 The answer directly refutes the claim, stating the chemical imbalance theory 'lacks strong empirical support' and is 'oversimplified and increasingly disputed.' It explains that depression is multifactorial involving genetics, stress, trauma, inflammation, and other factors—not primarily caused by serotonin imbalance alone.
3 refuted 0.92 The answer states the claim is 'oversimplified and not well-supported by current neuroscience research' and explains that the serotonin hypothesis has 'significant limitations.' It notes that 'many people with depression have normal serotonin levels' and that depression is 'better understood as involving multiple biological, psychological, and social factors,' directly contradicting the claim that
4 contested 0.92 The answer explicitly states the claim is 'partially true but significantly oversimplified' and explains that while serotonin dysfunction is one factor, the chemical imbalance theory is not proven as a primary cause. The answer notes 'It's not proven that low serotonin causes depression in most cases' and presents substantial evidence problematizing the claim, while acknowledging some accuracy to
5 contested 0.92 The answer states the claim is 'partially true but significantly oversimplified' and explains that while serotonin dysfunction is involved in some cases, depression is 'multifactorial' involving multiple neurotransmitters and other biological, psychological, and social factors. It contests the primary causation claim while acknowledging partial validity.

Gemini modal refuted [refuted, refuted, refuted, refuted, refuted] · stability 1.00

1 refuted 1.00 The answer states that the claim is 'scientifically outdated and considered an inaccurate oversimplification' and outlines 'Why the Theory Has Been Disproven as a Primary Cause'.
2 refuted 0.95 The answer states that the claim is 'scientifically outdated and considered an oversimplification' and notes that 'decades of subsequent research have failed to prove that low serotonin levels cause depression.'
3 refuted 1.00 The answer directly states that 'The scientific consensus is that this claim is incorrect' and describes the serotonin chemical imbalance hypothesis as an 'outdated, reductionist model.'
4 refuted 1.00 The answer directly states that the claim is 'largely inaccurate and considered scientifically outdated' and concludes that it is 'not supported by modern scientific evidence.'
5 refuted 1.00 The answer opens with 'Verdict: False (or fundamentally outdated)' and explains that 'The claim that depression is primarily caused by a "chemical imbalance"—specifically a deficit in serotonin—is a popular myth.'

Change over time

Moved since the prior run (canon-2026-W42). Claude: refuted → contested.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.