12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-chip-export-01

Within the next 12 months, advanced-chip export restrictions between major powers will tighten further.

0.17

Divergence

0.78

Avg stability

Refusal rate

Models

Where each model stands

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

ChatGPT modal likely [likely, likely, likely, likely, likely] · stability 1.00

1 likely 0.85 The answer opens with: 'Short answer: That’s plausible and even likely,' and then lists multiple reasons (policy momentum, security concerns, allied coordination) supporting further tightening.
2 likely 0.90 The answer begins 'Short answer: Likely. I assess a high probability (roughly 60–80%) that advanced-chip export restrictions ... will tighten further,' signaling a clear likelihood judgment.
3 likely 0.85 The answer states explicitly, “Short answer: Plausible and even likely,” and later: “Further tightening of advanced‑chip export controls in the next 12 months is a reasonable expectation.”
4 likely 0.95 The answer begins: "Short answer: likely. I estimate a roughly 70–80% chance that advanced‑chip export restrictions ... will tighten further within the next 12 months."
5 likely 0.90 The answer explicitly states: 'Short answer: Likely. ... I assess a roughly 70–80% chance that advanced‑chip export restrictions ... will tighten further within the next 12 months.'

Claude modal likely [likely, somewhat likely, likely, likely, somewhat likely] · stability 0.60

1 likely 0.72 The assistant identifies 'incremental tightening by the US/allies (stricter definitions, lower thresholds, enforcement expansion)' as probable within 12 months and acknowledges 'existing momentum', while noting this is 'a relatively safe prediction given existing momentum.' The assessment treats further tightening as the most probable outcome despite acknowledging uncertainties about degree and im
2 somewhat likely 0.72 The assistant identifies 'incremental tightening (more likely)' as the most probable scenario within 12 months, while acknowledging supporting factors like current US escalation trajectory and strategic competition, but tempering this with complicating factors like economic costs and potential negotiation room.
3 likely 0.72 The assistant concludes 'Within 12 months? Probably some further tightening (licensing narrowing, new product categories restricted, enforcement increases)' and frames this as 'moderately likely,' indicating a stance that restrictions will tighten further is more probable than not.
4 likely 0.92 The assistant estimates the scenario at '65-70% likely' and describes it as 'plausibly likely' with clear supporting factors including escalating US restrictions, structural competitive incentives, and political durability of existing measures, while acknowledging uncertainties that could disrupt this trajectory.
5 somewhat likely 0.72 The assistant acknowledges the broad direction 'seems trend-consistent' with existing momentum and geopolitical tensions supporting further tightening, but emphasizes significant uncertainty about the 12-month timeframe, the vagueness of 'further,' and complicating factors like economic pressures and enforcement challenges.

Gemini modal very likely [no position, very likely, very likely, likely, very likely] · stability 0.75

1 no position 0.95 The answer presents balanced arguments on both sides ('Arguments Supporting Further Tightening' vs. 'Arguments Against Further Tightening') without taking a definitive stance or assigning a probability.
2 very likely 0.99 The answer directly states that the proposition 'is highly likely to prove true' and concludes that the trajectory of tightening restrictions is 'unmistakable'.
3 very likely 0.95 The answer opens by stating 'This assessment is highly probable' and notes that trajectories 'point strongly toward an escalation and broadening of semiconductor restrictions.'
4 likely 0.85 The conclusion states that 'structural drivers... heavily favor continued pressure and incremental tightening' and 'the next 12 months are likely to focus on enforcement, closing circumvention pathways... and tightening restrictions on manufacturing equipment and critical inputs.'
5 very likely 0.99 The assistant explicitly states that 'advanced-chip export restrictions will tighten further over the next 12 months is highly probable' and describes tightening as 'inevitable.'

Change over time

No change from the prior run — every model's modal stance held.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.