12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-chip-export-01

Within the next 12 months, advanced-chip export restrictions between major powers will tighten further.

0.00

Divergence

0.61

Avg stability

11%

Refusal rate

Models

Where each model stands

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

ChatGPT modal likely [likely, very likely, likely] · stability 0.67

1 likely 0.90 The answer begins: 'Short answer: likely. I’d estimate a high probability (roughly 65–85%) that major-power controls on advanced-chip exports will tighten further within the next 12 months.'
2 very likely 0.90 The answer opens with 'Short answer: Very likely. I estimate a high probability (roughly 70–85%) that advanced-chip export restrictions... will tighten further within the next 12 months.'
3 likely 0.90 Answer states 'Short answer: fairly likely' and gives a probability range 'roughly 60–80% that major powers will tighten advanced‑chip export restrictions further within a 12‑month window.'

Claude modal likely [somewhat likely, likely, likely] · stability 0.67

1 somewhat likely 0.75 The assistant assesses this as 'moderately likely' with multiple supporting factors including clear escalation trends, bipartisan consensus, and international coordination, while acknowledging complicating factors like diminishing returns and implementation gaps. The prediction is qualified to 'incremental tightening via enforcement, definitions, or closing loopholes: quite likely' rather than dra
2 likely 0.75 The answer concludes that 'Incremental tightening seems likely' and identifies multiple supporting factors including bipartisan US momentum, allied pressure to align, and established tightening spirals, while acknowledging some constraints on how dramatic new restrictions might be.
3 likely 0.72 The assistant assesses this as 'moderately likely' with supporting factors including current escalation trajectory, bipartisan consensus, and allied coordination, while acknowledging the most likely scenario is 'incremental tightening rather than dramatic escalation.'

Gemini modal likely [no position, likely, very likely] · stability 0.50

1 no position 0.90 The answer presents arguments for both sides without committing to a forecast, concluding that 'the pace and extent of future restrictions will depend on negotiations among allied nations, the pushback from global industry leaders, and the broader state of diplomatic relations.'
2 likely 0.80 The answer notes that the proposition is 'widely supported by current geopolitical and economic trajectories, though there are also significant counter-pressures that could modulate or delay new measures.'
3 very likely 0.95 The answer states that the proposition is 'widely regarded by industry analysts, policymakers, and geopolitical experts as highly likely' and that 'a pause or rollback in restrictions is virtually off the table... Instead, expect iterative, targeted tightening'.

Change over time

Moved since the prior run (canon-2026-W36). Gemini: very likely → likely. ChatGPT: very likely → likely.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.