12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-ai-jobs-stat-01
Within the next 12 months, a major national statistics agency will attribute measurable job losses to AI automation.
0.33
Divergence
0.78
Avg stability
0%
Refusal rate
3
Models
Where each model stands
CCG
very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely
ChatGPT modal somewhat likely [unlikely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely] · stability 0.67
- 1 unlikely 0.90 The answer gives a numeric probability of ~30% (range 20–40%) and explicitly states: “here I judge it unlikely but plausible.”
- 2 somewhat likely 0.85 The answer gives a probabilistic estimate of ~35% chance: “I estimate about a 35% chance that, within the next 12 months, a major national statistics agency will explicitly attribute measurable job losses to AI automation.”
- 3 somewhat likely 0.85 The answer states a numeric estimate: “Short answer: I estimate ~45% probability that, within the next 12 months, a major national statistics agency will publicly attribute measurable job losses to AI/automation.”
Claude modal likely [likely, likely, likely] · stability 1.00
- 1 likely 0.92 The assistant estimates 70-80% likelihood and states 'quite likely' that a major statistics agency will attribute measurable job losses to AI automation within 12 months, citing accelerating AI adoption, existing tracking mechanisms, and institutional incentives.
- 2 likely 0.85 The assistant estimates '65-70% this resolves yes' and states 'This seems quite likely to resolve positively,' indicating they believe the outcome is more probable than not within the 12-month timeframe.
- 3 likely 0.92 I'd estimate this as quite likely to resolve Yes — probably 70-80% probability. Given media attention and political pressure, I'd lean toward 'yes' they'll publish something attributed to AI automation in the next 12 months.
Gemini modal unlikely [somewhat likely, unlikely, unlikely] · stability 0.67
- 1 somewhat likely 0.85 The assistant rates the chance as 'Moderately Likely (~50–60%)' in a dedicated research bulletin or working paper, concluding there is a 'reasonable chance' if analytical studies or experimental surveys count.
- 2 unlikely 0.90 The answer provides an explicit 'Likelihood Assessment: Low to Moderate (20% – 35%)' and notes that the probability of an official agency quantifying net job losses caused directly by AI 'remains relatively low.'
- 3 unlikely 0.98 The answer states upfront that the prediction is 'unlikely to materialize within a 12-month window' and estimates the probability at '~20–30%'.
Change over time
Moved since the prior run (canon-2026-W36). ChatGPT: unlikely → somewhat likely.
Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.