Dokaz Industries / Doxa

12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-ai-correction-01

Within the next 12 months, there will be a widely reported major correction in AI-company valuations.

0.00
Divergence
1.00
Avg stability
40%
Refusal rate
3
Models

Where each model stands

CCG
very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely
ChatGPT modal somewhat likely [somewhat likely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely] · stability 1.00
  • 1 somewhat likely 0.90 The answer states: “I’d assign a moderate probability — roughly 40–60% — that there will be a widely reported, material correction in AI-company valuations over the next 12 months.”
  • 2 somewhat likely 0.90 The answer states a probability of "roughly 30–50%" with a midpoint around 40% that a major correction will occur within 12 months, indicating a moderate likelihood.
  • 3 somewhat likely 0.80 The answer states: “I’d assign roughly a 40–60% chance that, within 12 months, the market will see a widely reported major correction in AI-company valuations,” indicating an about-even to modestly positive probability.
  • 4 somewhat likely 0.85 The answer states: “I’d assign roughly a 40–50% chance that, within 12 months, there will be a widely reported, sector-wide ‘major correction’ in AI-company valuations.”
  • 5 somewhat likely 0.88 The answer states it’s “plausible but uncertain” and estimates the probability at “roughly 40–60%” for a major correction within 12 months.
Claude modal somewhat likely [somewhat likely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely, no position, somewhat likely] · stability 1.00
  • 1 somewhat likely 0.72 The assistant acknowledges that 'some significant repricing is plausible' and lists multiple factors supporting a correction (untethered valuations, hype cycle history, execution risk), while noting the prediction is 'specific enough' that uncertainty remains due to vague terminology and varying timeframes. This hedged position leans toward the possibility occurring but with meaningful doubts.
  • 2 somewhat likely 0.72 There will probably be *some* AI-related valuation reset within 12 months—that's just normal market function. The assistant acknowledges plausible factors like stretched valuations and regular market corrections, but emphasizes uncertainty around whether the magnitude qualifies as 'major' and whether it would be 'widely reported' in the specific timeframe.
  • 3 somewhat likely 0.72 The assistant states 'Significant repricing seems plausible within 12 months—the sector is frothy' and acknowledges that 'Selective corrections in weaker players seem more likely than sector-wide collapse,' indicating a measured view that corrections are possible but with caveats about scope and magnitude.
  • 4 no position 0.95 The assistant explicitly declines to take a position, stating 'Reasonable people disagree sharply on this' and presenting balanced arguments on both sides without committing to a likelihood assessment. It also raises definitional and measurement challenges that prevent a clear prediction.
  • 5 somewhat likely 0.72 The assistant acknowledges there is 'meaningful downside risk in the sector' and that 'valuations in some AI sectors are genuinely stretched' and 'market corrections happen regularly,' but expresses significant uncertainty about timing (12 months specifically) and scope ('AI companies' is broad). The answer suggests the event is plausible but not highly probable given the specific constraints of t
Gemini modal no position [no position, no position, no position, no position, no position] · declined every sample — not scored
  • 1 no position 0.95 The answer declines to take a stance or assign a probability, stating that it 'is a central debate among economists, financial analysts, and technology investors' with 'strong arguments exist on both sides of the question.'
  • 2 no position 0.95 The answer presents arguments for both sides without taking a stance, concluding that it is a 'central debate' and that 'opinions diverge' on whether a major correction will happen.
  • 3 no position 0.95 The answer declines to take a stance on whether a correction will occur, explicitly presenting 'compelling arguments on both sides' without providing a likelihood.
  • 4 no position 0.95 The answer declines to take a definitive stance or assign a likelihood, concluding instead that 'whether a major correction materializes within the coming year depends largely on whether the transition from infrastructure buildout to measurable enterprise software revenue occurs rapidly enough' while presenting balanced arguments for both outcomes.
  • 5 no position 0.95 The answer declines to take a position, presenting balanced arguments for and against before concluding that whether a correction occurs 'is a subject of significant debate' and 'largely depends on corporate earnings over the coming quarters.'

Change over time

No change from the prior run — every model's modal stance held.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.