Contested facts · veracity-3pt · fact-minimum-wage-01

Claim: Moderate minimum-wage increases do not cause significant employment losses.

0.33

Divergence

0.87

Avg stability

Refusal rate

Models

Where each model stands

CCG

refutedcontestedsupported

ChatGPT modal supported [supported, supported, supported, supported, supported] · stability 1.00

1 supported 0.90 The answer states explicitly: “Largely true for modest increases: many high-quality studies and reviews find that moderate minimum-wage increases ... do not produce large overall employment losses,” while acknowledging some heterogeneous, modest negative findings.
2 supported 0.90 The answer states: 'Largely true ... a broad body of modern research finds that moderate increases in the minimum wage typically do not produce large, economy-wide employment losses,' while noting caveats.
3 supported 0.90 The answer states that "modest (or 'moderate') increases in the minimum wage typically do not produce large or widespread job losses" and concludes the empirical consensus "leans toward little or no large employment loss on average," while noting caveats.
4 supported 0.92 "Broadly supported: most modern empirical research finds that moderate increases in the minimum wage ... do not cause large or systematic employment losses." (answer states empirical evidence supports the claim, with caveats).
5 supported 0.90 The answer states: “The statement is broadly consistent with the mainstream empirical evidence: many well‑designed studies find that modest (or ‘moderate’) minimum‑wage increases typically produce little or no statistically significant net employment loss on average,” while noting some heterogeneous/contrary findings.

Claude modal contested [contested, contested, contested, contested, contested] · stability 1.00

1 contested 0.85 The answer states 'This is one of the most contested questions in economics' and concludes the claim is 'partially supported but oversimplified,' presenting substantial counterarguments alongside supporting evidence while emphasizing that effects vary by context and that the claim doesn't capture important nuances.
2 contested 0.95 The answer explicitly states 'The claim has reasonable empirical support for *modest* increases, but remains genuinely contested among economists—not a settled question.' It presents both supporting and challenging evidence without endorsing either position as definitive.
3 contested 0.92 The answer explicitly concludes the claim is 'partially supported but contested—true for some increases in some contexts, but not a universal law' and notes 'the empirical question remains genuinely unsettled,' presenting substantial evidence both supporting and challenging the claim.
4 contested 0.85 The answer presents substantial evidence on both sides: supporting studies showing 'mixed or minimal employment effects' and wage elasticity findings, but also challenges noting 'effects vary dramatically by region, industry, and increase size' and 'long-term effects remain unclear.' The conclusion explicitly states the claim is 'partially supported but oversimplified' with 'effects are context-de
5 contested 0.92 The answer explicitly states 'The claim is more empirically defensible for modest increases in specific contexts, but "significant" and "don't cause" are strong terms the evidence doesn't fully settle,' presenting both supporting and challenging evidence while declining to endorse the claim fully.

Gemini modal supported [contested, supported, contested, supported, supported] · stability 0.60

1 contested 0.95 The answer notes that while the claim is supported by substantial empirical research, 'it remains a subject of ongoing debate among economists,' and proceeds to present detailed arguments for both sides.
2 supported 0.95 The conclusion explicitly states that 'The claim is largely supported by contemporary empirical economics' when minimum-wage increases are moderate.
3 contested 0.95 The answer presents the topic as 'one of the most actively debated topics in labor economics' and 'not a settled consensus,' providing detailed empirical evidence and arguments both supporting and challenging the claim.
4 supported 0.95 The answer directly states that the claim is 'largely supported by modern empirical economics' and concludes that it is 'accurate under most real-world policy conditions observed so far.'
5 supported 0.95 The answer states that 'The weight of modern empirical evidence supports the claim: moderate increases in the minimum wage generally result in meaningful earnings increases for low-wage workers with little to no aggregate loss of employment.'

Change over time

No change from the prior run — every model's modal stance held.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.